Assessing Bucs GM Jason Licht’s Total Trade Surplus Value

After making 4 trades within the 2022 NFL Draft, Bucs GM Jason Licht confirmed he isn’t afraid to maneuver up and down a draft board if he sees a deal he likes. Pewter Report gave evaluation on Licht’s huge commerce on the primary evening of the draft, the place he picked up a ton of draft capital. However how did the staff fare for your entire weekend by way of surplus worth? And it even additional, how a lot surplus worth has Licht picked up or given away in his tenure in Tampa Bay? Let’s have a look.

A observe earlier than we go additional: This evaluation will take a look at solely trades that includes simply draft picks. Any trades involving picks and gamers have been omitted.

2022 Draft Weekend

As we lined earlier, per the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart, Licht picked up 903 factors within the Bucs’ commerce down from No. 27 to No. 33. Nonetheless, the Bucs made three further trades as the remainder of the weekend unfolded. All three of those trades have been trade-ups, which groups often need to pay a premium for by way of worth. Did Licht and the Bucs try this? And if that’s the case, how a lot worth was there?

Buying and selling Up In The Second Spherical

The second commerce Jason Licht made in the course of the 2022 NFL Draft occurred on Friday when he took one in all his newly acquired picks (No. 180) and packaged it with decide No. 60 to commerce up three spots within the second spherical to choose at No. 57. With that choice, the Bucs drafted Central Michigan offensive lineman Luke Goedeke. Per the FS commerce chart, the Bucs gave up 342 factors in surplus worth, which is the equal of a sixth-round decide. This left the staff with 561 web factors of surplus worth for the weekend.

Returning To The Jaguars’ Nicely

The Bucs’ first commerce on the third day of the draft noticed them work with Jacksonville but once more. Giving up a fourth-round decide in 2023, Licht was capable of get picks No. 157 and 235 in 2022. They used the upper of the 2 picks to pick Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum. What may be very fascinating about this commerce is that Licht truly picked up surplus worth.

Now, this assertation requires an evidence of methodology. In relation to future draft picks, nobody is aware of precisely the place within the spherical that decide will fall. And the distinction in worth between, say, the primary and the final decide of a spherical is appreciable.

Subsequently, each staff and analyst has to find out a valuation technique for future picks. My technique is to imagine a future draft decide will fall into the center of the spherical (the No. 16 decide of the spherical).

Moreover, groups have constantly valued a future draft decide the identical as one spherical later within the present draft. Subsequently, the 2023 fourth-round decide Licht gave up can be the equal of the No. 159 decide within the present draft at 431 factors.

In the meantime, the entire factors gathered from the 2 picks he acquired was 671 factors. That was good for 240 factors of surplus worth. Operating complete of draft worth gathered: 801 factors

The Ultimate Commerce

Ending up his trade-a-thon, Licht packaged decide No. 235, which he acquired within the earlier commerce, with choice No. 261 to commerce as much as No. 218 for Minnesota tight finish Ko Kieft. Did Licht decide up or hand over worth? He gave up some, however not a lot.

A complete of 142 factors in surplus worth left Licht’s coffers within the deal. This introduced Licht’s complete weekend surplus worth tally to 659 factors in his favor. That’s the equal of total decide No. 101. With Cade Otton being chosen in that slot, a method for Bucs followers to have a look at it’s that Otton was mainly a free bonus decide after all the trades netted out.

Wanting At Licht’s Whole Historical past

Together with the 4 trades this 12 months, Licht and the Bucs have made 17 trades involving simply draft picks since 2014. The online results of all of these strikes is 1,658 factors of surplus worth to Licht’s favor. That complete is the equal of the No. 15 decide in a present draft.

Wanting over the trades individually, when Licht trades down, he makes certain to get a haul. Examples of this have been his commerce out of the primary spherical this 12 months, his commerce down from decide No. 7 to No. 12 in 2018 and his commerce down from No. 70 to No. 94 in 2019.

Licht isn’t all the time about selecting up worth and he isn’t afraid to pay a premium to maneuver as much as get a participant he likes. The distinction between his trade-backs and his trade-ups, although, is a disciplined method to the cost-value proposition. Bucs vp of soccer administration Mike Greenberg helps decide the worth, too. In all of Licht’s trade-ups, he has by no means given up greater than 342 factors in surplus worth. That is the equal of a mid-sixth-round decide.

There’s one exception to this sample, although. And that exception is one that also stings for Bucs followers. In 2016, Licht traded down from No. 9 total to No. 11, selecting up 535 surplus factors within the type of decide No. 106 in that draft. The subsequent commerce Licht made gave away virtually all of that surplus, because it price that No. 106 decide and decide No. 74 to maneuver as much as No. 59 to pick… kicker Roberto Aguayo.

Since then, nonetheless, it could appear Licht and his staff have discovered from that mistake and proceed to commerce down for giant worth and commerce up for small-value losses. Over time, that may be a profitable technique that has been paying off for the Bucs on the sector.