BettingbytheNumbers Pick of the Day, 12/28/2023

Rutgers -2.5 (-110) vs. Miami (FL)

Our decide of the day zeroes in on the distinctive mix of motivation, strategic line actions, and important roster modifications. After season ending on a four-game skid, Rutgers faces Miami (FL) in a bowl recreation the place their lack of transfers/opt-outs makes it appear to be Rutgers is taking this recreation rather more severely than the Hurricanes. Hungry canine runs quicker, and Rutgers’ want to cap this season on word could possibly be the decisive issue.

Notably, the betting strains have shifted dramatically from Rutgers as a +3 underdog on December 5 to -2.5 simply hours earlier than kickoff. This motion isn’t only a development; it displays the bettors’ confidence in Rutgers’ capacity to outperform expectations towards a weakened Miami lineup. The Hurricanes shall be with out ten+ starters, together with key gamers like quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and broad receiver Colbie Younger. This leaves them closely reliant on third-string quarterback Jacurri Brown, which might hamper their capacity to throw downfield. If Rutgers sells out to cease Miami’s sturdy run assault, it could possibly be more difficult for Miami to attain like they’ve this season.

Although lacking beginning cornerback Max Melton, Rutgers stays in a stronger place. Their quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, leads a formidable speeding assault, and their protection ranks extremely in most classes. With a historical past of stable performances in bowl video games below Coach Greg Schiano (5-1-1 ATS in bowl video games), in comparison with Miami’s inconsistent showings below Coach Mario Cristobal, Rutgers stands out because the extra dependable crew.

The expectation is for Rutgers to play a disciplined, low-scoring recreation, leveraging their stable protection and speeding recreation towards a Miami crew at half power. That makes Rutgers -2.5 our play of the day.

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