I need to take you again in time to somewhat over three months in the past. It was a less complicated time, the place guys who had been paid to catch the ball and guys who had been paid to cease guys from catching the ball might ink related offers.
Again then Bucs followers had been anxiously awaiting information of a Bucs extension with star vast receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin coming off of a season the place he caught 98 passes for 1,103 yards and 5 touchdowns earlier than tearing his ACL late within the season.
The belief at that time limit amongst a lot of the soccer world was that Godwin and the Bucs would come to phrases on a take care of an common annual worth someplace within the neighborhood of $17.5 million. That will have made Godwin the seventh-highest paid vast receiver within the NFL.
Then on March 6 some very shocking information broke. The Bucs had been going to make use of their franchise tag on the younger star for the second consecutive yr. This meant Godwin would obtain a one-year, $19.2 million contract. It additionally gave the workforce extra time to barter completely with Godwin on a long-term deal.
Then new got here out that the Chargers and receiver Mike Williams had agreed to a three-year $60 million contract. That deal made tied Williams with Amari Cooper for the fourth-highest AAV amongst vast receivers in soccer. This had enormous implications for the Bucs and Godwin.
Williams was not seen as fairly the entire receiver Godwin was and his counting stats paled as compared as properly. Godwin and Williams shared the identical agent as properly. Shortly thereafter information broke of Godwin and the Bucs reaching an virtually an identical deal to the Williams contract.
Now let’s fast-forward again to current day. Godwin’s $20 million AAV has gone from Prime 5 contract amongst vast receivers to virtually out of the Prime 10. 5 receivers have signed contract extensions that enhance their AAV above the $20 million threshold since Godwin’s deal turned official. And searching on the high quality of these receivers, it turns into obvious that Godwin’s deal is wanting increasingly more like a discount with every new signing/restructure/extension.
Now any checklist of “the perfect vast receivers in soccer” tends to finish up in a shouting argument the place both sides cherry-picks stats that assist construct their case. And in contrast to in baseball, there isn’t an all-encompassing WAR (wins above substitute) metric publicly accessible that may assist set up worth on this debate. So admittedly that is an incomplete case. However with that stated utilizing some publicly accessible metrics it turns into simple to see that the Bucs truly made out properly on the Godwin deal.
Let’s begin with a private favourite of mine. Whereas PFF grades aren’t excellent, they’re the perfect publicly accessible play-by-play evaluations of gamers. The place does Godwin rank on this metric? Final yr Godwin’s 81.3 PFF grade ranked eleventh within the NFL. Screening out receivers who’re nonetheless enjoying on rookie offers and he strikes as much as fifth. The ninth-highest AAV on the fifth-highest grade is sweet worth relating to NFL contracts.
Trying past the grades and you may see Godwin regularly seems favorable on a value-perspective. yards per route run, which is an effective composite for a way typically a receiver will get open to draw a throw from their quarterback and what they do with that throw, Godwin once more ranks favorably.
I used a minimal of 75 targets and once more screened out gamers nonetheless on rookie offers. Godwin ranks tied for sixth (with Mike Williams!). The Bucs know Godwin’s worth. And although his contract exceeded anticipated worth amongst most on the outset of free company it’s obvious that they nonetheless received good worth simply 4 brief months later.
Mainly, any manner you slice it, that Godwin deal on reflection is wanting like a steal for the Bucs.
And don’t get me began on Mike Evans …